Tip 1: Discarding 8-8
Tip 2: Toss opponent K-6 or Q-9?
Tip 3: Tossing yourself 4-5 or 7-8
Tip 4: Toss opponent K-10 or K-9?
Tip 5: Toss yourself 5-K or 5-6?
Tip 6: Discarding to your own crib
Tip 7: Discarding to opponent's crib
Tip 8: Leading from 2-x-x-x
Tip 9: Double-Run Hypnosis!!
Tip 10: Small Hand Rule
Cribbage: game of chance or skill?
At a recent cribbage tournament, I was privileged to participate in a discussion with two other players regarding the merits of the K-6 and Q-9 discard option to the opponent. One player liked the K-6, the other favored the Q-9. I should admit that my slight bias is for the K-6.
On returning home, I dug into the discarding records and discovered some interesting comparative data. Please note that I have recorded more than 1,000 discards on each of these options. The K-6 at this point has a slightly lower overall average at 4.150 followed by the Q-9 at 4.175. It should be recalled that only the K-10 and a K-9 offer discard choices which average less than 4.0.
When viewing these discards selections in broadly defined terms, they look much the same.
| 7 or Fewer Points | 8 or More Points | |
| K-6 | 86.21% | 13.79% |
| Q-9 | 88.40% | 11.60% |
When looking at these two discard options with greater focus. there are some distinct differences.
K-6
| 0 | 1-2 | 3-7 | 8-11 | 12-15 | 16+ | |
| 4.150 Avg | 98 | 456 | 678 | 154 | 43* | 0 |
| 1,428 Hands | 6.9% | 31.8% | 47.5% | 10.8% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
* includes three 14 cribs
Q-9
| 0 | 1-2 | 3-7 | 8-11 | 12-15 | 16+ | |
| 4.175 Avg | 126 | 365 | 565 | 118 | 20** | 0 |
| 1,194 Hands | 10.6% | 30.6% | 47.3% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
**No cribs over 12 points
The Q-9 does very well on the ends of this scale. A zero crib is 65% more likely with the Q-9 while the K-6 is 175% more likely to tally 12-15 points. In addition, the Q-9 average is continuing to decline at a more rapid rate than the K-6. It appears that an additional 1,000 samples of the Q-9 will result in an average of approximately 4.087 with the K-6 following at 4.115. These averages have not stabilized at present levels.
You can be sure that either discard selection is a very good one. It appears that I need to favor the Q-9. That's hard for me to do since the last three times I discarded a Q-9, the cribs were ten, ten and eleven.
- Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George Rasmussen. All rights reserved.
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