Tip 1: Discarding 8-8
Tip 2: Toss opponent K-6 or Q-9?
Tip 3: Tossing yourself 4-5 or 7-8
Tip 4: Toss opponent K-10 or K-9?
Tip 5: Toss yourself 5-K or 5-6?
Tip 6: Discarding to your own crib
Tip 7: Discarding to opponent's crib
Tip 8: Leading from 2-x-x-x
Tip 9: Double-Run Hypnosis!!
Tip 10: Small Hand Rule
Cribbage: game of chance or skill?
A comparison of these discard options to your own crib provide an interesting and widely unexpected result. The 5-6 averages 6.76, while the 5-K has a lower average of 6.72. These averages are based on recorded discards. The 5-6 has been discarded 486 times and the 5-K has been deposited to my own crib 1,428 times. It should be noted that only the 5-5, 2-3 and the 5-J attain a higher average.
When viewing the 5-6 and 5-K in a broad sense, they are very similar with the 5-6 showing a slight advantage.
| 7 or Fewer Points | 8 or More Points | |
| 5-6 | 59.87% | 40.13% |
| 5-K | 61.63% | 38.37% |
In a more definitive view, some differences do emerge:
5-6
| 2 | 3-7 | 8-11 | 12-15 | 16+ | |
| 6.76 Avg. | 25 | 286 | 136 | 30 | 9* |
| 486 Discards | 5.14% | 58.85% | 27.99% | 6.17% | 1.85% |
* None over 16 Points
5-K
| 2 | 3-7 | 8-11 | 12-15 | 16+ | |
| 6.72 Avg. | 37 | 869 | 426 | 65 | 31** |
| 1,428 Discards | 2.59% | 60.86% | 29.83% | 4.55% | 2.17% |
** One of 17 points
How can the 5-6 have a higher average that the 5-K given the above figures? The 5-6 to your own crib provides connecting cards for opponent's discard of 7-K, 7-Q, 7-J, 7-10, 4-K, 4-Q, 4-J and 4-10 and works reasonably well with any x-x discard.
Also, what happens in the 3-7 column and the 8-11 column more than compensates for the 5-6's tendency to produce a larger number of two-point cribs. The 5-K often tallies 4 or 6 points while the 5-6 predominately totals five or seven points. The same advantage appears in the 8-11 range, with the 5-K frequently attaining eight points while the 5-6 is commonly at nine points. Have you noted that the 5-6 is 35% more likely to produce a crib of 12-15 points?
By the way, the 5-6 does even better when compared to the 5-Q or 5-10. Either of these discard choices is excellent. Give the 5-6 greater consideration and you will benefit by that choice. When comparing these two, it's easy to forget that the 5-6 is also worth a minimum of two points in your crib.
- Republished by permission. Text copyright © 2002 by George Rasmussen. All rights reserved.
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